An Analysis of Bt Cotton Cultivation in Punjab , Pakistan Using the Agriculture Decision Support System ( ADSS )

Introduction Pakistan is the 4th top producer of cotton in the world (Table 1), yet in terms of yield it is at the distant 10th position. There are many possible reasons for low cotton yields in Pakistan—high prices of agricultural inputs (pesticides, fertilizers, etc.), higher intensity of insect and pest attacks, deficiency of water for irrigation, lack of advanced technologies and awareness, low literacy rate of farmers, adulteration in pesticides and agro-professionalism, etc. (AgroNews, 2009). Thus, crop yield cannot be attributed to just one or two factors. However, there are certain factors controlled by the government, such as price and availability of the seeds, and certain decisions that are in the domain of individual farmers, such as choice of the seed. Bt cotton has been developed through the transfer of a gene from a soil bacterium, Bacillus thuringiensis. This gene, when expressed in cotton, produces Cry protein, which is harmful to the larvae of moths, butterflies, beetles, and flies. When insects feed on the plant, the toxin enters the body and binds to the insect’s gut. Hence, it disrupts its feeding and digestion process and eventually leads to the death of the insect. The popularity of transgenic varieties (such as Bt cotton) among the farmers is due to two factors: the potential of increase in yield per acre (for which Bt cotton is not engineered) and savings on pesticides and labor resulting from fewer pest attacks (for which Bt cotton is engineered). Bt cotton is genetically enhanced to resist three bollworms: cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), the spotted bollworm (Earias insulana), and the pink bollworm (Pectinophora gossypiella). Globally US$8.1 billion are used on pesticides annually; out of this, nearly $2.7 billion are used on cotton pesticides. Pesticides can be saved by cultivating Bt transgenic crops (Shelton, Zhao, & Roush, 2002). A reduction in the use of broad-spectrum pesticides on Bt cotton would result in the conservation of natural enemies as well as a decrease in soil and water contamination. Moreover, a reduction in pesticide usage will also bring health benefits to female Pakistani cotton pickers and others who come in contact with these pesticides. However cottonleaf curl virus (CLCV) is still the major threat to Pakistani cotton along with the recently emerged and extremely damaging mealybug. Presently, no resistant cotton variety is available against these two menaces, and the Bt cotton is also vulnerable to them (Carroll, 2009).